From Indiana to Texas, President Donald Trump has been throwing his political weight around, using his clout to end the careers of Republicans who challenged his hold on the GOP. But as the second, more conclusive phase of the 2026 election takes center stage, the embattled president faces a much harder battle. And his strength with GOP voters won’t help. Republicans succeeded in adding up to ...

President Donald Trump speaks during an announcement with Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Lee Zeldin in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, D.C., on May 21, 2026.

Kent Nishimura/AFP/GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA/TNS

From Indiana to Texas, President Donald Trump has been throwing his political weight around, using his clout to end the careers of Republicans who challenged his hold on the GOP.

But as the second, more conclusive phase of the 2026 election takes center stage, the embattled president faces a much harder battle. And his strength with GOP voters won’t help.

Republicans succeeded in adding up to 10 more GOP-leaning congressional districts, via mid-decade redistricting and two court decisions. But traditional indicators suggest the Democrats are still likely to win control of the House.

The biggest factor is public disapproval of Trump’s presidency.

In recent weeks, his job approval, considered the most reliable indicator of an incumbent administration’s mid-term election prospects, has sunk to the mid-to-upper 30s, below historic levels.

While his approval remains strong within the GOP and minimal among Democrats, the most recent Fox News poll showed that independents — the keys to most election outcomes — disapprove of Trump’s job performance by a massive 3-to-1.

And that was before the bipartisan furor over his proposed creation of a “slush fund” to reward allies such as the Jan. 6 insurrectionists, many of whom have already received pardons sparing them jail time.

His approval on economic issues is even worse; having dropped below 30 in the Fox poll. It reflects the rebirth of inflation, largely due to his controversial tariff hikes and the increased gas prices triggered by his unpopular war with Iran.

Besides, voter surveys show enthusiasm among Democrats is higher than among Republicans, indicating the possibility of the kind of Democratic wave that marked the last two midterm elections of GOP presidents – George W. Bush in 2006 and Trump in 2018.

With Republicans currently clinging to a narrow three-seat House margin, it won’t take much for the Democrats to overcome that. But the GOP’s gain via redistricting and court decisions means they’ll probably need to net about 15 seats to regain the majority they enjoyed from 2019-2023.

At present, though, the Real Clear Politics average of generic congressional polls shows the Democrats’ lead increasing to 8.1 points, more than enough to do that.

The RCP average pegs Trump’s job approval at just under 40 percent, though some surveys have had it lower. Either would be problematic; 40 is the level at which both Trump in 2018 and Joe Biden in 2022 lost the House at their first mid-term elections, according to Gallup poll data. Barack Obama’s in 2010 was 44.

The last president who kept the House in his first mid-term was George W. Bush in 2002. His job approval hit an astronomical 67 a year after the 9/11 terrorist attacks, though he lost the House four years later, when his job approval sank to 37.

Job approval is not the only questionable economic statistic facing Trump’s GOP.

The Labor Department says the annual inflation rate rose to 3.8% in May, the highest level in four years. A major factor was the increase in gas prices fueled by the Iran war, from a national average of 2.98 per gallon to $4.51, though it has now dropped back somewhat.

While Trump has repeatedly predicted gas prices will drop sharply when the war ends, his own energy secretary said they will likely remain over $3 until next year.

With this backdrop, it is hardly surprising that Democrats are more enthusiastic about voting in November. A New York Times/Siena poll showed they were eight points more likely to say they were “almost certain” to vote than Republicans.

The Democrats may need that enthusiasm advantage. Voter discontent with their party remains high, and the number of potential House takeovers has declined as both parties have created more “safe” seats.

The nonpartisan Cook Political Report classifies only 18 of the 435 House seats as tossups, with the GOP holding a shaky three-seat edge among the others. But Cook concluded, “We still believe that Democrats (are) favored to win control of the House due to the poor national environment for the GOP. But they are no longer overwhelming favorites.”

The Democrats face a stiffer fight to regain the Senate. They need to net four currently Republican seats to reach the 51 for control, since Republican Vice President JD Vance would maintain the GOP majority in a 50-50 Senate.

Polls show the Democrats running even or leading incumbent Republicans Susan Collins of Maine, Dan Sullivan of Alaska and John Husted of Ohio, and in open GOP-held seats in North Carolina and Iowa.

Last week’s primary defeat of Republican Sen. John Cornyn put Texas into play, and the first independent post-primary poll gave Democrat James Talarico a marginal 3-point lead over Republican Ken Paxton.

On the other hand, Democrats face challenges to hold their seats in Georgia, Michigan and Minnesota.

The stakes are enormous. Control of either house would let the Democrats exercise the oversight of the Trump administration that has been non-existent the last two years.

House control might also trigger another effort to impeach Trump, though even a Democratic Senate would be unlikely to muster the 67 votes for conviction.

“I don’t care about the mid-terms,” Trump said during last week’s Cabinet meeting. But if the Democrats win one or both houses, he will care a lot.

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