Despite some heated exchanges and dire forecasts of budget holes and secret tax plans, neither side in the fight over Washington’s new millionaires tax" landed a knockout blow Thursday night in a Seattle Times-KING 5 debate on a voter initiative to repeal the tax. Former U.S. Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler, speaking for the Initiative 645 campaign, spent the 60-minute session repeating opponents’ ...

Jaime Herrera Beutler, left, and Washington State Labor Council President April Sims debated the income tax with Herrera Beutler speaking on behalf of the campaign to repeal the tax, and Sims speaking for the NO campaign, seeking to keep the tax, Thursday, Oct. 8, 2026, at KING -5’ s studios.

Dean Rutz/The Seattle Times/TNS

Despite some heated exchanges and dire forecasts of budget holes and secret tax plans, neither side in the fight over Washington’s new millionaires tax" landed a knockout blow Thursday night in a Seattle Times-KING 5 debate on a voter initiative to repeal the tax.

Former U.S. Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler, speaking for the Initiative 645 campaign, spent the 60-minute session repeating opponents’ claims that the 9.9% tax on household incomes above $1 million, which takes effect in 2028, is simply the first step toward a statewide income tax for all residents.

“Income tax supporters want you to believe this is only for millionaires, but this is coming for Washingtonians,” Herrera Beutler, a Republican, said near the end of the debate, which was moderated by Times political reporter Jim Brunner and KING 5 news anchor Joyce Taylor.

April Sims, president of the Washington State Labor Council, AFL-CIO, speaking for the "No on 645" campaign, was just as relentless in her efforts to reassure voters that the tax, approved by the Legislature earlier this year, is strictly limited to the state’s wealthy residents and is absolutely essential to funding education and healthcare and avoiding what tax supporters say is a forecasted $13 billion budget hole.

I-645 “would give the wealthiest people in our state a $13 billion tax break and put investments in healthcare and education at risk,” Sims said.

Passed in the final days of the 2026 legislative session as lawmakers struggled to fill the budget gap, the high-earners income tax has become one of the biggest issues in the 2026 election cycle.

A "yes" vote would repeal the tax, while a "no" vote keeps it on the books. Election Day is Nov. 3 and ballots will be mailed to voters next week.

The onslaught of I-645 TV ads has already begun and the issue is being felt in campaigns for the Legislature and in races for five open seats on the nine-seat State Supreme Court.

If the tax survives the repeal initiative, the court is all but guaranteed to weigh in on the tax, which opponents say goes against a 1933 state Supreme Court ruling that an earlier income tax violated the state constitution.

From the moment the tax was first discussed last year, it has fueled a potent backlash from business groups and wealthy residents.

That includes Bellevue developer Kemper Freeman and Redmond hedge fund manager Brian Heywood, along with others who contend the tax will cause employers and entrepreneurs to flee to lower-tax states and further damage an already fragile economy.

They’ve also attacked the tax as a political sweetheart deal between Democrats and public-sector unions, who are among the biggest opponents of a repeal – and whose members’ jobs depend heavily on the continued flow of taxes into the state budget.

But as was quickly made clear Thursday, tax opponents believe their best chance at a repeal in November is to persuade voters that Democrats ultimately plan to drop the threshold to include more or even all Washington households.

To bolster that theory, Herrera Beutler pointed to a proposal Democrats declined to pass last session that would have locked in the $1 million threshold. "Why would they do that if they don't intend to lower it?" Herrera Beutler said.

She also argued that majority Democrats’ repeated inability to cut spending or fix shortfalls all but guarantees that lawmakers will soon be looking for new ways to raise revenue.

Sims countered that lowering the income tax below $1 million was politically impossible.

“The voters don't support it. The governor doesn't support it,” Sims said, referring to Gov. Bob Ferguson’s promise to veto any attempt at lowering the tax threshold.

Exodus or education

Opponents also say the tax will hurt Washington’s ability to attract talented entrepreneurs and is already leading to an exodus of employers and individuals to lower-tax states.

On Thursday, Herrera Beutler said the tax will be especially hard on small-business owners, and that a quarter of them “are saying we're either going to leave or restructure. So even if a small percentage of them actually do that, that means lost jobs for working-class Washingtonians. It means an economy that's going to shrink.”

But Sims referred to economic research that has found the number of wealthy taxpapers who leave because of tax increases is low.

In fact, according to one of the best-known researchers of so-called "wealth flight," while some Washington high-earners will leave over the new tax, the net loss would be small – around 1.9%, or 475, of the 25,000 filers the state estimates would pay the tax.

“There is no evidence to support that there will be some mass exodus of the super wealthy folks in our state,” Sims said.

To the contrary, Sims said, the "millionaires tax" would shore up the state economy by helping ensure that workers get the education and training they need for the jobs of the future.

Sims also repeated tax supporters’ argument that the "millionaires tax" is a key first step in rebalancing a regressive state tax system.

The state currently relies too heavily on sales taxes and business taxes, which disproportionately affect lower-income residents and small businesses, because the state has refused to adopt an income tax.

Sims called the current system "fundamentally unfair.”

Sims said the "millionaires tax" shifts the burden with provisions that lower business taxes, expand the working families tax credit and exempt more household items, like diapers and toothpaste, from sales tax.

Herrera Beutler said opponents of the "millionaires tax" support those tax cuts but want to see more, including cuts in the state’s carbon-related fuel tax. The modest tax relief promised in the high-earners tax "does nothing for actual working families," she said.

Reading the fine print

The "millionaires tax" has been something of an ideological vibe check for voters amid a broader reckoning over the state's budget woes.

Since the state Supreme Court overturned a state income tax in 1933, voters have repeatedly nixed income tax proposals, most recently in 2010, when a measure was rejected by 64% of voters.

The "millionaires tax has enjoyed modestly better reviews.

A recent poll found that 57% of voters oppose efforts to repeal the tax, with just 35% in support – provided respondents were shown legally required ballot language that lays out the potential impacts of a repeal on the state budget.

Without that language, just 44% opposed the repeal, while 40% supported it, with 16% undecided.

Supporters of the repeal tried to have that language removed from the ballot. But a Hail Mary legal challenge of the wording was rejected by the state Supreme Court in early September in a split 4-4 decision.

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