U.N. report says warming will exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius target
UPI

U.N. report says warming will exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius target

Joe Fisher | October 21, 2026

The global effort to slow warming to 1.5-degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels has failed, a report from the UN Environment Program said.

Oct. 21 (UPI) -- The global effort to slow warming to 1.5-degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels has failed, a report from the U.N. Environment Program said Wednesday.

The 1.5-degree target from the Paris Climate Agreement will inevitably be surpassed, the report says as focus shifts from meeting its target to limiting the damage done. It goes on to say that increasing actions to curb climate change can still bring warming down, though time of is the essence.

"Every additional fraction of a degree and additional year of warming above 1.5 [degrees Celsius] increases climate impacts and risks, such as the deadly floods, heat waves and wildfires that have plagued many nations this year," Inger Andersen, UNEP executive director, said in a statement. "So, we must pull out all the stops to minimize peak warming and return to 1.5 [degrees] by the end of the century."

The U.N. report warns that warming is on pace to reach 2.8-degrees over pre-industrial levels by the end of the century if current policies remain in effect. If all nations under the Paris Agreement meet their climate action plans, warming could be limited to 2.6 degrees.

At best, the report says that peak warming can be held to 1.7 to 1.8 degrees with the possibility of returning to a 1.5-degree level by 2100. This would require greenhouse gas emissions to be reduced by 18% by 2030, with greater cuts after that. By 2035, greenhouse gas emissions must be reduced by 45% and by 2040, 69% compared to 2025 levels.

"Overshoot is not surrender," Antonio Guterres, U.N. secretary general, said in the report. "We can still keep it as small and as short as possible -- and bring temperatures back below 1.5 degrees by the end of the century."

The global output of carbon remained relatively the same between 2024 and 2025. UNEP analysts are not counting this an outright win just yet as it could simply be a sign that carbon output has peaked.

The shift toward renewable energy is also facing resistance in the United States, where President Donald Trump and his administration have taken up a renewed push toward relying on fossil fuels.

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