The National Hurricane Center on Monday said a Caribbean system has a high chance to form into Tropical Storm Melissa this week with some forecast paths having it turn north and threaten landfall. As of the NHC’s 8 a.m. Eastern time tropical outlook, the tropical wave located in the eastern Caribbean Sea had a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms. “The system is moving westward at 15 ...

The tropical outlook as of 8 a.m. Monday, Oct. 20, 2025.

NHC/NHC/TNS

The National Hurricane Center on Monday said a Caribbean system has a high chance to form into Tropical Storm Melissa this week with some forecast paths having it turn north and threaten landfall.

As of the NHC’s 8 a.m. Eastern time tropical outlook, the tropical wave located in the eastern Caribbean Sea had a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms.

“The system is moving westward at 15 to 20 mph towards the central Caribbean Sea and is expected to slow down over the next few days,” forecasters said. “Environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression or storm is likely to form over the next few days.”

Heavy rain and gusty winds have subsided for now, but could increase over portions of the ABC islands in the southern Caribbean in the next couple of days.

The NHC gave it a 50% chance to develop in the next two days and 80% chance to develop in the next seven.

It would be the 13th cyclone of the season. and if it develops into a named storm, it could become Tropical Storm Melissa.

The long-term forecast models have it shifting from its westward path and turning back north becoming a potential threat from Jamaica to Hispaniola.

Of the 12 named storms this year, four have grown into hurricanes, and three of those became major hurricanes. Only one, Tropical Storm Chantal, made a U.S. landfall this year.

Hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.

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