FORT MYERS, Fla. — It’s not the speed. That’s a given. It’s not the pitcher glancing over his shoulder, or the catcher sitting a little higher in his crouch or the middle infielders cheating toward second base. It’s not the first baseman trying to keep him close to the bag, or the possibility that he’s about to move into scoring position. When it comes to Chandler Simpson and stealing bases, ...

The Tampa Bay Rays Chandler Simpson celebrates after swiping second against the Athletics during a June 30, 2025, game. "I don't want to run into dumb outs or do anything reckless," Simpson said. "At the same time, I want to be relentless on the base paths."

Jefferee Woo/Tampa Bay Times/TNS

FORT MYERS, Fla. — It’s not the speed. That’s a given.

It’s not the pitcher glancing over his shoulder, or the catcher sitting a little higher in his crouch or the middle infielders cheating toward second base. It’s not the first baseman trying to keep him close to the bag, or the possibility that he’s about to move into scoring position.

When it comes to Chandler Simpson and stealing bases, it’s the anticipation.

Just how far can he get?

He stole 44 bases in 109 games as a rookie last season. He stole 94 bases in Class A in 2023, and 104 bases the following season.

That’s the attraction. It’s the whiff of history. The possibility of seeing something no one has witnessed in Major League Baseball in nearly 40 years. Four players in the modern era have topped 100 stolen bases in a big league season, and Vince Coleman is the only one of that group still alive.

Is that number even possible in the 21st century version of the game?

And is Simpson the guy to do it?

“I feel like anything is possible,” Simpson said. “I just have to be smart about it. Make sure that I’m doing things that help us get wins at the end of the day. So I really don’t like putting any numbers on it, just making sure I’m taking one bag at a time.”

To be clear, this is a radical idea. A longshot probability. Tim Raines never stole 100 bases. Neither did Kenny Lofton or Ron LeFlore. Plenty of generational base stealers never cracked the century mark.

Speed is obviously the key, but it’s not the only factor. You need to study pitchers to learn the nuances of their deliveries. You need to know which catchers have the quickest pop time. You need to have a manager who trusts you enough to give you the green light.

Mostly, you need to be able to get on base enough times to tilt the odds in your favor.

It’s no coincidence that Rickey Henderson had more stolen bases than anyone to play the game because he had a .401 on-base percentage for his career. Lou Brock had more than 3,000 hits. Ty Cobb had a career .366 batting average.

“I think he can get close to that number. I would not put it past him,” Rays manager Kevin Cash said. “Because I think you’re going to see him hit a little bit more. As his on-base percentage goes up, that’s more opportunities.”

Simpson hit .295 last season, which is certainly impressive for a rookie, but his on-base percentage was only .326 due to a lack of walks. With better plate discipline, with an increased focus on bunting and putting pressure on the defense, the possibility of running will continue to increase.

And the best part is that Simpson is open to all of those ideas.

He averaged 1.02 stolen base attempts per game during the 2023-24 seasons, and the Rays encouraged him to run as much as he wanted because results in the minors are not as important as learning your craft. But once Simpson reached the majors, he cut his stolen base attempts back to 0.51 per game.

Some of that, he said, was simply because it was harder to be successful. Pitchers did a better job of holding him on, and getting the ball to the plate quicker. Catchers are quicker and have better arms in the majors. And winning games was the priority as opposed to accumulating stats.

“Everybody knows I’m trying to take that extra 90 feet and so they’re all more attentive,” Simpson said. “The first baseman, the catcher, the shortstop, the second baseman, they’re all watching. So it’s a different kind of mind game. You have to play a little cat-and-mouse. You play with different leads, different tactics, different timing just to give yourself an edge.”

The Rays are still amenable to Simpson running when he wants, but they’ve asked him to be mindful of the game situation. Stealing third base is trickier, and carries a lot more risk because it potentially wipes out a runner in scoring position. So that’s far less of a priority than it might have been for Simpson in the minors.

There are also techniques that can be improved. His slide, for instance. Of the 12 times Simpson was caught stealing in 2025, Cash points out that a handful were because Simpson’s slide took him past the base. There were also some pickoffs as he learned to read pitchers better.

His over/under for stolen bases in 2026 is in the 60 range, according to Vegas oddsmakers. That seems pretty doable if Simpson plays a full season. Getting to 70 would not be a shock, either.

But it’s that 80, 90, 100 range that has been mostly elusive in the last four decades in the majors.

“I don’t want to run into dumb outs or do anything reckless,” Simpson said. “At the same time, I want to be relentless on the base paths. You can’t be scared about the 12 feet between you and first base, you’ve got to be focused on the 90 feet it takes to get to second base.

“As long as I keep that relentlessness, I think everything will work out this year.”