John Romano: Odds say Milwaukee is the Series favorite. The Rays say hold my brew.
Tampa Bay Times

John Romano: Odds say Milwaukee is the Series favorite. The Rays say hold my brew.

John Romano, Tampa Bay Times | October 20, 2026

TAMPA, Fla. — In the coming days, you will hear how this World Series is an epic clash between like-minded organizations. That the Rays and Brewers are mirror images with nothing but zip codes separating one from the other. This is simply not true. When it comes to divining the good guys from the bad, there are clear choices to be made. For instance, do you like the No. 1 seed from the ...

Milwaukee Brewers players and staff members pose for a photo after eliminating the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game 4 of the National League Championship Series at Dodger Stadium on Oct. 15, 2026, in Los Angeles.

Harry How/Getty Images North America/TNS


TAMPA, Fla. — In the coming days, you will hear how this World Series is an epic clash between like-minded organizations.

That the Rays and Brewers are mirror images with nothing but zip codes separating one from the other.

This is simply not true.

When it comes to divining the good guys from the bad, there are clear choices to be made.

For instance, do you like the No. 1 seed from the American League that knocked off the uber-rich Yankees? Or the No. 1 seed from the National League that took down the big, bad Dodgers?

Do you favor the team with the 23-year-old superstar from the Dominican Republic or the one with the 22-year-old superstar from Venezuela?

Do you trust the team that led its league with a .258 batting average and .403 slugging percentage, or are you partial to the roster that led its league with a .258 batting average and .402 slugging percentage?

Is it more intriguing that the Brewers traded away eventual ALCS MVP Freddy Peralta, or that the Rays traded away eventual NLCS MVP Jake Bauers?

Are you rooting for the franchise that has waited forever to win a World Series, or the franchise that has waited even longer?

OK, so maybe the Brewers and Rays have a few things in common. Maybe this is the baseball equivalent of acquaintances arranging a blind date.

Although, for the record, there are some differences between the franchises.

While both teams are in the bottom half of the league when it comes to revenues, there is a sizable disparity. According to MLB’s Labor Relations Department (via USA Today), the Brewers had the 19th-highest payroll in the game at $143 million. That made them reckless spenders compared to the Rays, who spent about one-third less that amount at $98 million.

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At this time last year, Freddy Peralta had just thrown his last pitch for the Milwaukee Brewers in a Game 2 loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League Championship Series.

Dirk Shadd/Tampa Bay Times/TNS


And, even though both teams led their respective leagues in victories during the regular season, the Brewers were far more dominant.

Milwaukee was second in the majors in scoring, second in ERA and first in run differential. Tampa Bay, by comparison, was 12th in scoring, seventh in ERA and sixth in run differential. That explains why the Brewers were immediately anointed as favorites by oddsmakers.

The odds vary from casino to casino, but Milwaukee is generally listed around minus-160. That means it would take a $160 wager in order to win $100 (plus your original wager). The Rays are at plus-140. That means a $100 wager would earn you $140 (plus your $100 bet). That works out to an implied probability of a Milwaukee victory in the 62% range.

Honestly, that sounds about right. But it’s nowhere near a slam dunk.

If there’s one thing we’ve learned about watching the Rays this summer, it is that they are versatile enough to overcome most obstacles.

“It’s an elite blend of talent and people,” baseball operations president Erik Neander said amidst the spilled champagne and cigar smoke in the Rays clubhouse Monday night. “It’s the way they play for one another, the way they came together, they way they can win games in a lot of different ways.

“They’re not built to bludgeon people. They’re built to play to the scoreboard at any given moment in a game and to find a way to end the ninth with more runs than the other team. That’s it. That doesn’t lead to having some monster difference in runs scored ahead of runs allowed.”

So what should you know — and fear — about the Brewers?

Well, baseball operations president Matt Arnold comes from the same lineage as Neander. Both made names for themselves working under Andrew Friedman in Tampa Bay — and both were in the front office when the Rays went to the World Series in 2008.

The Rays may have a slight edge in depth in the starting rotation, but Milwaukee will enter the World Series completely rested after sweeping the Dodgers in the NLCS, and with NL Cy Young Award favorite Jacob Misiorowski slated to pitch Game No. 1. Milwaukee also had a lower ERA and more strikeouts in the bullpen during the regular season.

The offenses are somewhat similar in their approaches. Both were top-5 teams in batting average, stolen bases and sacrifice hits. The Rays have more power and a more contact-oriented style. The Brewers walked more but also struck out a lot more. They were also 1-2 in the league in batting average with runners in scoring position, with the Rays slightly higher.

From a distance, they may look like identical teams. Up close, the truth is more nuanced.

In a few days, comparisons will no longer matter.

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